The SpaceX IPO: What The History Of Other IPOs Tells Us

Important Disclosures — Please Read Before Proceeding

This post is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation of any kind. The information reflects publicly available data as of June 12, 2026, and is subject to change. Past performance of any security referenced herein is not indicative of future results. Individual suitability varies; consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decision. Crown Advisors, LLC and its associated persons may hold positions in securities discussed herein — please refer to our conflict of interest disclosure policy for current holdings information.

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Today marks a historic moment in U.S. capital markets: SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at a fixed price of $135 per share, valuing the company at roughly $1.77 trillion. SpaceX is targeting a raise of up to $75 billion, which would make it by far the largest U.S. IPO of all time — a title currently held by Alibaba's $22 billion offering in 2014.1

For investors considering participation, this is a genuinely historic moment. It is also one that warrants careful reflection. This post presents both the investment thesis and the historical context investors should understand before committing capital. The goal is not to argue for or against participation, but to ensure that whatever decision you make is an informed one.

A New Kind of IPO Accessibility

One of the most distinctive features of this offering is the breadth of retail investor access. SpaceX is targeting a retail allocation of approximately 30% of shares, compared to the typical 5% to 10% in most large IPOs. "Thirty percent is actually quite high," said Edward Best, co-chair of the capital markets practice at Willkie Farr & Gallagher.1

To facilitate that access, Fidelity reduced its minimum eligibility threshold from approximately $500,000 to $2,000 — a reduction of roughly 99.6%.2 SpaceX named five retail brokerages as direct channels in its prospectus: Fidelity, Charles Schwab, Robinhood, SoFi, and E*Trade — all of which allow everyday investors to participate at the $135 offer price.3

Demand has been exceptional: the order book was reportedly more than two times oversubscribed, with approximately $150 billion in orders for a $75 billion raise.4 Given that level of demand, most retail investors should expect to receive only a partial allocation or potentially none at all.

Understanding the Anti-Flipping Policies

Before participating, investors should carefully review their brokerage's holding period requirements. These are standard, disclosed industry policies designed to discourage short-term flipping of IPO shares. They carry real consequences if violated, and the terms vary meaningfully across platforms.

These restrictions are each broker's own internal policy — not regulatory designations from the SEC or FINRA.5 It is also worth noting that SpaceX's prospectus discloses a directed share program allocating up to 5% of the offering to certain employees and designated persons, with no holding restriction on those shares.6 This is a standard, SEC-disclosed IPO practice. The full terms are publicly available in SpaceX's S-1 prospectus filed May 20, 2026.7

What the Valuation Implies

SpaceX set a fixed offer price of $135 per share, implying a market capitalization of approximately $1.77 trillion against $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue and an operating loss of $4.2 billion — approximately a 95x revenue multiple.1 This pricing reflects significant expectations for future growth rather than current profitability.

The Bear Case:  Morningstar analysts wrote recently that they believe the company is "overvalued" given its current financials. Among the nine existing trillion-dollar public companies, the smallest by revenue is Micron at approximately $58 billion annually — roughly three times SpaceX's current revenue base.1

The Bull Case:  Goldman Sachs has projected that SpaceX's AI and Starlink-related revenue could reach $322 billion by 2030, with total projected revenue of $474 billion.8 Dan Hanson, a senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, said investors should think of SpaceX "not just as a rocket company, but as a combination of its launch business, Starlink satellite internet network and artificial intelligence ambitions." "This team is just getting started. There is a significant opportunity for them to create value as they execute."1

Investors should also be aware of the governance structure: Elon Musk owns approximately 42% of SpaceX's equity and controls approximately 85% of voting power through a dual-class share structure.7 This structure is consistent with how other major technology companies — including Meta and Alphabet — went public with similar arrangements.

What History Suggests About Year One

Past Performance Disclosure

Past performance of any security is not indicative of future results. The companies referenced below are distinct businesses with different financial profiles, competitive environments, and market conditions. Their historical post-IPO trajectories are provided for educational context only and should not be interpreted as predictive of SpaceX's performance.

Truist's Keith Lerner recently examined 30 major IPOs in the software and technology space and found that all 30 experienced a significant drawdown at some point during their first year of trading, even those that showed strength out of the gate. The median year-one drawdown was 54%. In fact, 12 months after their offerings, the median new listing had lost 9%, and just 43% were in positive territory one year out.9

A separate, broader analysis covering 155 VC-backed firms found a median 1-year return of -6% among 127 traditional IPOs, with results particularly strong for tech IPOs from 2010 to 2015 and more variable since — partly attributable to more unprofitable firms testing the public markets.9

Some of the most closely watched technology debuts offer instructive historical context:

·       Facebook (Meta, 2012): IPO'd at $38 per share ($104 billion market cap). The stock spent more than a year below its offering price before eventually becoming one of the best-performing mega-IPOs in market history. Meta now carries a market cap of approximately $1.4 trillion.10 This case illustrates that a difficult first year does not preclude long-term success.

·       Alibaba (2014): The largest tech IPO of all time by capital raised at $21.7 billion. Despite multi-year drawdowns post-offering, the stock has roughly tripled from its IPO price.10

·       Amazon (1997) and Google (2004): Frequently cited as aspirational examples of early IPO participation producing extraordinary long-term returns for patient shareholders. Both went public at relatively more conservative valuation multiples relative to their earnings trajectories at the time of listing.

·       Snap (2017), Uber (2019), Pinterest (2019), Robinhood (2021): Each experienced significant share price declines in its first year of trading.9 These examples are noted for historical context only. Each reflects a distinct business model, market cycle, and financial profile that may differ materially from SpaceX's circumstances.

The consistent pattern in the data is that major technology IPOs frequently experience meaningful volatility in year one, with long-term outcomes diverging significantly based on underlying business fundamentals, valuation at entry, and investor time horizon.

A Framework for Considering This Decision

Educational Context Only — Not Personalized Advice

The following considerations are provided for general educational purposes only. They do not constitute personalized investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Individual suitability depends on your specific financial situation, risk tolerance, tax circumstances, and investment objectives. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any decision regarding this or any other investment.

1.     Review your brokerage's specific holding restrictions before placing an order. Anti-flipping policies create real asymmetry: if shares decline in the early weeks, investors may face a choice between absorbing a loss or risking future IPO platform access. Understanding your platform's exact terms in advance is essential.

2.     Consider position sizing in the context of your broader portfolio. At approximately a 95x revenue multiple on a loss-making business, the current pricing reflects substantial embedded growth expectations. If you are constructive on the long-term thesis, a measured allocation sized appropriately within your overall risk framework may be more suitable than concentrated exposure.

3.     Monitor the insider lockup calendar. The standard lockup for technology IPOs at this scale is 90 to 180 days. With a June 2026 listing, this window opens between September and December 2026. The combination of high retail allocation and a premium valuation makes the post-lockup period a meaningful supply dynamic to monitor.

4.     Align your time horizon with the investment thesis. The historical record suggests that investors who have fared best in high-profile IPOs are generally those with multi-year time horizons. If your circumstances require shorter-term liquidity, the near-term volatility profile of a newly public company at this valuation level warrants careful consideration.

Conclusion

SpaceX's IPO is, by any measure, a landmark event in U.S. capital markets history. Reasonable, well-informed analysts disagree about whether the current valuation is justified by the long-term opportunity or whether it prices in too much anticipated success too soon. No one can predict with certainty which outcome will prevail.

What is clear is that informed decision-making — grounded in historical context, a clear understanding of the terms you are agreeing to, and a realistic assessment of your own time horizon and risk tolerance — is the most reliable foundation for navigating any investment of this magnitude. Both the opportunity and the risks here are real and worthy of serious consideration.